Burning Earth
Earth’s Terminal Energy – ETE
Against the dreaded external world one can only defend oneself by some kind of turning away from it, if one intends to solve the task by oneself. There is, indeed, another and a better path: that of becoming a member of human community, and, with the help of a technique guided by science, going over to attack against nature and subjecting her to human will. ~ Freud
The psychotic industrial ‘civilization’ chose the ‘better path’ and ‘with the help of a technique guided by science, [went] over to attack against nature . . .’
Important Notice … Urgent WARNING!
Unless global energy consumption is reduced rapidly—by mid 2006—to levels below 60EJ/year (6E+19 joules/year), the runaway positive feedback loops that are destroying Earth’s ecosystems including ozone holes, global heating, extreme climatic events, toxic pollution, resources depletion, unethical conduct, war, and disease pandemics would reach the point of no return, overwhelm our life support systems and render most of our population centers uninhabitable by as early as 2015, possibly earlier, according to our dynamic energy models.
Failure to rein back global energy consumption to levels below 60 exajoules by June 2006 would render the concept of sustainable management redundant (it seems highly unlikely that post industrial civilization would voluntarily sacrifice its perceived privileges and values in favor of sustaining life on Earth). MSRB is replacing its current program with the planet rescue operations, PRO.
Part 1. Introduction
[First Draft: February 25, 2005]
Below are preliminary results of a study on Earth’s Terminal Energy (ETE) conducted by MSRB. This study attempts to answer some of the following questions:
– How much greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants would it take to destroy Earth’s ecosystems?
– What’s the total volume of pollution produced annually by humankind?
– What is the annual rate of increase in the production of pollution, especially of greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide equivalent gases (CO2e)?
– What is the relationship between human activity (conversion/consumption of energy) and the increase in the overall pollution?
– At what level would the cumulative effects of human activity enhanced by excessive energy consumption overwhelm and destroy the ecosystems within a relatively short period (less than or equal to the average lifetime)?
– How long have we left before all/most of the ecosystems collapse irreversibly, committing life to extinction? A millennium, a century, a decade or two?
1. Earth’s still supporting life – but only just!
By what means would most of the living species, especially on Earth’s land mass become extinct?
a. Incinerate Earth’s land mass to a depth of a few centimerters.
b. Destroy Earth’s ozone layer.
c. Suffocate life by removing the air in the atmosphere.
d. Exhaust Earth’s supplies of potable water.
e. Deplete/destroy/poison the food chain to starve species.
f. Cook Earth by pumping large volumes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
g. Poison the planet with toxic chemicals/radionuclide.
h. Disable nature’s reproductive cycles.
j. Annihilate species via the spread of airborne and waterborne virulent diseases.
k. Apply extremes of climatic conditions.
l. Stuff Earth with garbage.
m. Wage wars (especially nuclear wars).
n. All of the above.
Earth is a dynamic, life-supporting system; however, through the above means life would be annihilated, directly or indirectly, by tearing apart the fabric of life on the planet, as the intricate support mechanisms and ecosystems are destroyed.
The single factor that accelerates the destruction of Earth’s life support systems is the excessive consumption of “Dirty Energy.”
2. What’s Dirty Energy?
Dirty Energy, DE (rhymes with GE), is the energy profile of human activity on Earth. Energy that is converted from the fossil fuels and consumed through human activity is responsible for global heating, rapid degradation and imminent collapse of ecosystems.
All human activities require energy, most of which is supplied by converting the stored energy in fossil fuels to mechanical power, electricity, heat and greenhouse gases [as well as food.] The rate of consumption of DE is directly proportional to the amount of pollution created and is exponentially proportional to the poisoning of biosphere, environmental degradation and ultimately extinction of life on Earth. The more energy that is converted and consumed from fossil fuels, the more toxic substances and life-destroying pollutants are released into the environment. In most cases where the damage to life support systems is already extensive, the rate of collapse of ecosystems and extinction of life species increase superexponentially against any linear increase in human activities.
3. The Torching Energy: ETE Model
What is the critical rate of consumption of DE at which the ecosystems began to collapse irreversibly thus committing species to extinction?
The Torching Energy, or q[torch], [MSRB terminology] is the critical rate of DE consumption at which ecosystems begin to collapse irreversibly making most species extinct, especially the larger animals like humans, in a relatively short time. The ETE model calculates q[torch] at 9.51 terawatts (9.51E+12 joules/second).
According to the model, when the rate of human activity (energy consumption) exceeds q[torch] our planet’s ecosystems began to collapse. If q[torch] is not reduced, the collapse becomes irreversible resulting in the extinction of species on Earth within a relative short period of about 62 years.
[Note: The terminology “q[torch]” implies extensive damage to the environment which is tantamount to “torching” Earth, but it does not mean the actual incineration of the planet.]
4. Earth’s Terminal Energy – ETE
How much DE would it take to commit life to extinction?
The earth’s Terminal Energy, denoted by q[terminal], is the amount of DE converted through human activity at rates equal to or higher than the q[torch] that would annihilate most species (99 percent of all species) on the land mass and destroys most of the marine life in 0-62 years. According to our model q[terminal] is equal to 1.86E+22 joules (18.6 zettajoules).
When the rate of consumption of DE exceeds the q[torch] threshold, the above mentioned mechanisms including global warming (heating), toxic pollution, depletion of food and energy resources, unethical behavior, war, disease pandemics… create positive feedback loops that overwhelm and destroy the ecosystems thus committing life to extinction.
5. Exceeding the Torching Energy
In 1980 the consumption of DE exceeded q[torch]. Total energy consumption for 1980 reached 3.12E+20 joules, raising q[torch] to 9.89 terawatts.
Between 1890 and 2004 the amount of DE consumed by humans was almost exactly equal to q[terminal] or ETE {q[terminal] is equal to 1.86E+22 joules.} However, the conversion rate over the 114-year period remained lower than the critical rate (q[torch] = 9.51TW) until 1980 (it dipped marginally below q[torch] in 1981 and 1982).
6. Where We Are Now
In 2006 we consumed a staggering 5.07E+20 joules of DE [revised October7, 2007] globally, equivalent to the energy released by detonating about 9.3 million Hiroshima bombs at the rate of about 25,437 bombs per day throughout the entire year. The q[torch] rose to 16.1 terawatts, reducing the “shelf life” of our biosphere to about 38 years [calculated from 1980.]
7. The Time We Have Left
At the 2006 rates (q[torch] = 16.1 TW, revised October 7, 2007), and taking into account the cumulative harmful effects of energy consumption since 1980, we probably do not have too many years left on the life calendar.
Total systems failure, the irreversible collapse of all systems that comprise the life support matrix, is looming.
The life support matrix consists of intricate, interconnecting systems, including ecosystems, without which life on Earth cannot thrive. Final collapse of these systems leads to the extinction of life on Earth-omnicide.
Q and A
Q: Who decides what is DE and what is not?
A: In its equilibrium state the ETE model assumes no human activity, therefore, any energy converted by humans is regarded as DE.
Q: The sun has been radiating many orders of magnitude of solar energy to Earth for millions of years, how come life on Earth is not extinct?
A: Solar radiation to Earth/atmosphere system exceeds 1.7E+17 watts (0.17 exawatts). However, the solar flux drives Earth’s heat engine and it’s therefore life giving. The absorbed sunlight drives photosynthesis and powers Earth’s climate system. Sunlight is vital for maintaining healthy life support systems on Earth under normal conditions (i.e., in the absence of ozone holes, artificially-produced greenhouse gases, toxic substances…), which ensure that the solar energy absorbed by Earth is radiated as heat back to space, maintaining radiative equilibrium. See also a breakdown of Earth’s incoming and outgoing energy at: Earth’s Radiation Budget Facts, ENERGY: A Balancing Act, and Earth’s Energy Budget.
In contrast, DE kills by overwhelming Earth’s life support system and destroying her defense mechanisms.
Q: What are the actual mechanisms of destruction?
A: Here’s a partial list of the destruction mechanisms:
Ozone holes. Ozone depletion is exposing the biosphere to higher levels of UV radiation (UVA and UVB) reaching the Earth’s surface and poses the biggest single threat to life and the ailing ecosystems.
Global Heating. CO2 and other greenhouse gases and pollutants produced as a result of DE conversion/consumption are cooking our planet.
Extreme Climatic Events. Exacerbated by Global Heating, hurricanes, droughts, torrential rains… are devastating the life habitat on Earth.
Pollution. Terminal toxic syndrome, NOX, SOX, heavy metals, chemical, petrochemical, biological and radionuclide poisoning, as well as all other synthetic poisons, and heat (thermal pollution kills marine culture, high temperatures that result from the combustion of DE produce a host of toxic chemicals and pollutants) are destroying th ecosystems.
Resources depletion. Increasingly, more lives would be lost due to food, water and energy scarcity.
War. The psychopathology of the predatory mutant humanoids, or Homo Ignarus Vulgus Exitiabilis (see HIVE below), seems to be geared to destroying the planet for the purpose of annihilating life on Earth.
Unethical Conduct. Unsustainable lifestyles, population mobility, overconsumption and excessive possessions are overwhelming and and destroying the ecosystems.
Disease pandemics. The weakened and collapsing ecosystems are increasingly less effective in preventing disease; unstoppable disease pandemics will destroy species.
Shrinking Habitat. As we continue overproduction, stuffing our planet with garbage, human and wildlife habitats keep on shrinking.
From a life base to a time-bomb. Capitalism, the cannibalistic system of economy, has transformed Earth from a life base to a ticking time-bomb!
[Note: Both capitalism and socialism are unsustainable because they are growth economies and therefore cannot succeed within Earth’s ecology, which is a system with finite limits.]
Q: What if all power was from renewables and we used that electricity efficiently through mass transit systems, and used bio-farming for food? Would the same amount of net energy still be as lethal?
A: That’s a hypothetical question, so far as the ETE model is concerned. To take into account future contributions made by “clean energy”, the model must know how slowly or quickly, for example, you intend to get to the point where all power is renewable. In other words, what’s the total primary DE used within the system and over what period (the consumption rate) while striving for a totally renewable inventory? What is the intended production rate of “clean energy” and how would that clean energy be used? What are the processes and proposed end products?
Q: What actually is doing the killing, according to this theory?
A: System failure (Ecosystem collapse)—the all-embracing phenomenon that destroys the life support matrix in the biosphere.
Part 2. Poison me not, my children!
8. Is Earth Really Dying?
Earth is not dying; we are killing her capacity to support life. We are killing Earth’s capacity to support life by converting too much Dirty Energy, DE, to sustain a host of unnecessary, unsustainable activities. The excessive conversion/consumption of DE is producing more pollution than Earth can carry– billions upon billions of tons of greenhouse gasses and toxic pollutants are released to the environment overwhelming the biosphere and destroying our life support systems.
As a result of human activity in the last 30 years the conversion/consumption of DE [burning fossil fuels] and cement production have emitted about 176 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere. This compares with approximately 140 billion tons of carbon that have been released to the atmosphere in the preceding 224 years (1751 – 1975).
A record Release in 2006: 29,461.41 million Metric Tons of CO2e from Fossil Fuels
[Update: October 15, 2007] In 2006 we pumped about 17,400,000,000,000 pounds (7.9 gigatons, Gt) of carbon (about 40 times the combined total weight of the entire world population) in the form of heat-trapping carbon dioxide to the atmosphere [total CO2 of 28.97Gt] from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels- ditto millions of tons of other greenhouse gases. The consumption and flaring of fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas…) was responsible for about 3/4 of all carbon emissions. [By the end of 2007, we will have released an additional 30,787Gt of CO2 from consumption and flaring of fossil fuels to the atmosphere.]
As a direct result of excessive consumption of DE and the corresponding increases in the CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) pollution levels, global temperatures are rising, the ice and mountain glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising and violent climatic changes (destructive storms and flooding) are devastating our lives.
Excessive consumption of DE also releases more than 15 billion pounds of toxic pollutants into the environment each year. The deadly cocktail of pollutants include several thousand toxic substances–only 667 are reported. [Toxic pollutants like rocket fuel that were recently discovered in mother’s breast milk in the U.S. are not included on the list.]
Unnecessary, unsustainable hyperconsumerism and overconsumption are tearing apart the fabric of life on Earth. We are converting 57 trillion pounds of materials to garbage, which is rapidly engulfing us as if sinking in quicksands of garbage. In the race to produce and consume more and more of everything, we are irreversibly contaminating and destroying the soil that we eat from, water that we drink, air that we breathe, and atmosphere that we seek protection from. Our bodies contains at least 500 measurable chemicals that shouldn’t be there – caused by releasing millions of tons of industrial, agricultural and municipal wastes, nuclear, chemical, and oil spills to the biosphere.
How much more pollution would it take to destroy life on Earth? How long could Earth withstand the devastation? How could the biosphere continue to support life for much longer?
The water quality continues to deteriorate globally from pollution, rising temperatures and overconsumption (not to forget the golf courses). The urge to consume more than we need is irreversibly depleting our natural food reserves (collapsing fisheries, disappearing species…) The pressure to produce more than we need is degrading the soil productivity resulting in desertification, eroding soils, mudslides… contamination of the food chain (pesticides, synthetic chemicals, diseases, radiation, antibiotics…) More and more of the tropical rainforest is destroyed to provide land for cultivation resulting in the loss of innumerable plants and animal species. Annually we are loosing nearly 10 million hectares of forest and possibly as many as 27,000 species that inhabit them.
And all of the above is made possible because we are blindly committed to a culture of exponential growth and have created the technology that enables us to feed the culture by converting excessive rates of DE thus accelerating our vehicles of destruction on the superhighway of death toward total extinction.
Our excessive use of DE and the corresponding increase in the production of the toxic inventory ensure that if we fail to destroy life on Earth in any given way, we would succeed through a diversity of means.
In a number of scenarios, at a certain point of “inflexion,” chaos sets in and a downward spiral occurs. A breakdown in the supply of energy, the maintenance or sustenance of the technology chain renders most machines inoperable and thus the rate of conversion/consumption of DE drops significantly. While this turning point is being reached, the collapse of industrial civilization occurs.
It is no cause for celebration, however, if the collapse of industrial civilization resulted from, for example, nuclear Armageddon.
9. So who’s killing life on Earth?
The psychopathic Homo Ignarus Vulgus Exitiabilis (HIVE). You are; most of us humanoids are. The HIVE genus (the ignorant, destructive mobs comprising mainly of psychopathic men and women who, like Freud, “attack against nature and subjecting her to human will”) are killing life on Earth in a desperate (and misguided) attempt to protect their intravenous connection to the moribund energy-intensive system that feeds them—all be it poison.
Summary
In Part I you read:
1. How to destroy life on Earth
a. Incinerate Earth’s land mass.
b. Destroy Earth’s ozone layer.
c. Suffocate life by removing the air.
d. Exhaust Earth’s supplies of potable water.
e. Destroy food sources and starve life.
f. Cook Earth by pumping greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.
g. Poison Earth with toxic chemicals.
h. Disable nature’s reproductive cycles.
j. Annihilate life via virulent disease pandemics.
k. Apply extremes of climatic conditions.
l. Stuff Earth with garbage.
m. Wage wars (especially nuclear war).
n. All of the above.
2. Dirty Energy
Dirty Energy, DE (rhymes with GE), is the energy profile for human activity on Earth—energy that is converted/consumed through human activity and is responsible for global pollution and destruction of our life-support systems.
3. The Torching Energy
The Torching Energy, q[torch], is the critical rate of DE conversion/consumption at which life support systems begin to collapse irreversibly—to the extent that life becomes extinct in a relatively short time. The ETE model calculates q[torch] at 9.51 terawatts (9.51E+12 joules/second).
4. Earth’s Terminal Energy – ETE
The Earth’s Terminal Energy, ETE, denoted by q[terminal], is the amount of energy which could annihilate all life forms (99.9999 percent of everything) on land and destroy most of the marine life, if converted/consumed [through human activity] at rates equal to or higher than the q[torch]. The study finds q[terminal] equal to 1.86E+22 joules (18.6 zettajoules).
5. Exceeding the Torching Energy
In 1980 we exceeded q[torch]. Total energy consumption for 1980 reached 3.12E+20 joules, resulting in q[torch] of 9.89 terawatts.
6. Where We Are Now
In 2006 we converted a staggering 5.07E+20 joules of DE globally. The q[torch] rose to 16.1 terawatts, reducing the life expectancy of our biosphere to about 38 years (from 1980). [Revised October7, 2007]
7. Time We Have left
At the 2006 rates of consumption (16.1 terawatts), and taking into account the cumulative harmful effects of energy consumption since 1980, we probably do not have too many years left on the life calendar.
8. Is Earth Really Dying?
Would it be possible to borrow an extra 50 years to get our act together?
Probably.
According to ETE model if humankind continues to convert/consume energy at the q[torch] rate of 9.51 terawatts (9.51E+12 joules/second) the life expectancy of Earth’s life support system drops to about 62 years from 1980 (down to about 38 years at the DE consumption rate reached in 2004).
In a number of scenarios, at a certain point of “inflexion,” chaos sets in and a downward spiral occurs. A breakdown in the supply of energy, the maintenance or sustenance of the technology chain would render most machines inoperable and thus the rate of conversion/consumption of DE drops significantly. While this turning point is being reached, the collapse of industrial civilization occurs.
It is no cause for celebration, however, if the collapse of industrial civilization resulted from, for example, nuclear Armageddon.
9. So who’s killing life on Earth?
The psychopathic Homo Ignarus Vulgus Exitiabilis (HIVE). You are; most of us humanoids are. The HIVE genus (the ignorant, destructive mobs comprising mainly of psychopathic men and women who, like Freud, “attack against nature and subjecting her to human will”) are killing life on Earth in a desperate (and misguided) attempt to protect their intravenous connection to the moribund energy-intensive system that feeds them—all be it poison.
Part 3. How to stop killing life on Earth
10. What is a safe level for energy conversion/consumption?
The key to preserving life on Earth is the ability of human intelligence to evolve at very low rates of DE conversion/consumption.
Yet, humans use about 150 times more energy now than in the pre-industrial times.
11. What’s Energy?
Energy is the capacity for doing work. Energy forms include thermal, mechanical, electrical, nuclear, and chemical. Energy may be transformed from one form to another.
Energy is measured in calories, or joules. A calorie is the amount of energy, heat, which raises the temperature of 1 gram of water by 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) and is equal to 4.184 joules.
Food “Calorie” (often not capitalized) is the unit used to measure the metabolic energy of food. One food calorie is equal to one kilocalories (1,000 calories – kcal), or 4,184 joules.
12. Food Energy
The energy humans need to stay alive and do work is provided by the metabolism of food. A good estimate for the daily energy requirement is 2,000 food calories (2,000 kcal) per day for women and 2,600 kcal for men (low to medium activity lifestyles).
To produce 1,000 kcal of food energy, however, the food production industry in the Western Society uses between 7-10,000 kcal in Sweden and 11-14,000 kcal in USA (about 22,000 kcal in Japan).
This enormous energy markup is used by the agricultural industry (fertilizers, pesticides, farm machinery), retail sector (transportation, refrigeration, processing, packaging, displaying and advertising) and in the kitchen (refrigerating and cooking the food).
13. Energy: Transportation and Industry
The US primary energy consumption is about 365 million BTU per capita (one BTU, British thermal unit, is about 1,055 joules) or 63 barrels of oil equivalent every year (a barrel of oil is equivalent to about 6.118 billion joules). Most of this energy comes from irreplaceable fossil fuel sources: oil, coal and natural gas.
Compare the total energy consumption per capita with the average power output of a human:
a. On average the power output of a human is about 100 watts.
b. Per capita daily consumption in joules:
(365 million BTU per year) x (1,055 joules per BTU) / (365 days per year) = 1,054 megajoules per day
c. Per capita power used:
(1,054 megajoules per day) / (24 hours per day) / (3600 seconds per hour) = 12,201 watts
d. Divide (c) by (a) and you will note each person uses 122 energy slaves working for him/her continuously (this gives a new slant to the content of Aladdin’s lamp: oil transforming into genie slaves).
14. CO2
On average each [US] gallon of gasoline produces about 132 megajoules of heat, or enthalpy (primary energy of about 161 megajoules). Each megajoule of energy used in gasoline (or diesel fuel) results in the emission of about 68 grams of CO2. Each gallon of gasoline produces 11 kilograms (24 pounds) of carbon dioxide. [Note: An additional 22% is added to the CO2 figure to allow for the input energy used to extract crude oil and process the fuel.]
15. Reality Check
In 2006 humans consumed a staggering 5.07E+20 joules of energy globally (equal to the energy released by about 9.3 million Hiroshima bombs) at an average rate of 16.1 terawatts (16.1 E+12 joules/second). At such high rates of consumption the resultant pollution would destroy the planet’s life support systems in a very short time.
16. Earth is NOT a Machine
Earth is a living organism and her ecosystems are dynamic and life supporting; Earth is not a mechanical device, or a machine.
Increasingly, we’re beginning to understand that:
I. Linear changes to the Earth’s energy system, or increases in the demand we place on her carrying capacity, result in exponential deterioration of her ecosystem.
II. The deterioration of an ecosystem is often abrupt, especially if a critical threshold has been crossed. The magnitude of these changes are sometime very large and have devastating impacts on human well-being, and indeed the survival of other living species.
III. Most of the damage to the ecosystem services that everyone needs are irreversible or may take many millions of years to reverse.
IV. Many incidents of nonlinear, abrupt changes to the Earth’s ecosystem include climate changes, disease emergence, algal blooms and the creation of “dead zones” in coastal waters, fisheries collapse. . .
Given the nonlinear dynamics of deterioration, reducing the pollution emitted to the environment by, say, 50 percent may only improve the quality of the ecosystem’s services by a much smaller magnitude.
17. Signs of Stability?
In one scenario, the ETE Model shows signs of stability in approximately 50 percent of its feedback mechanisms when DE consumption is reduced rapidly to about 60 exajoules (6E+19 joules) each year, which is about 20 percent of the 1980 energy consumption (equivalent to the DE consumption for the year 1910). This “safe” level corresponds to a maximum daily consumption of about 25 megajoules per capita [see note below] globally (assuming a world population of about 6.5 billion).
Note: Energy content of gasoline is about 34.87 megajoules per liter (primary energy content of about 42.54 megajoules – producing about 2.91 kg of CO2 per liter of gasoline).
Part 4. Could We Build Bridges To The Future?
[August 21, 2005]
Long before the dinosaurs were extinct, their fate was sealed by the evolutionary forces. They were unintelligent and unable to adapt to the tidal waves of change.
The evolutionary forces that separate the fattest from the fittest and the sustainable from the irrelevant are tearing apart the homeostasis that maintained the stability and survival of the energy-intensive businesses, urbanized communities and consumer lifestyles.
The tsunami created by the energy plunder is engulfing humanity, pushing the ecosystems to the brink of imminent collapse. The tidal waves will crush and bury the energy dinosaurs.
Our paths to the future are being washed away. Ahead lies a gaping abyss, which separates us from the future. Could we build new bridges to the future and help a cross-section of humans and other life forms survive the cataclysmic changes?
The following are snapshots of the catastrophic environmental changes and other factors which would occur between now and 2015. The estimates were obtained by extrapolating recent data and examining the current trends.
Civilization-Induced Catastrophes
18.1. Ultraviolet Radiation – the Ozone Hole
Ultraviolet Radiation – the Ozone Hole. Without Ozone life on Earth is not possible. Ozone depletion allows higher levels of UV radiation (UVA and UVB) reaching the Earth’s surface and poses the biggest threat to life and the ecosystems. The amount of UV radiation reaching the Antarctica can double during the annual “ozone hole”- a severe depletion of ozone layer.
At usual times, when the ozone hole disappears, New Zealand still receives at least 42 percent more ultraviolet rays than Northern Hemisphere.
NASA and NOAA Declare 2006 Ozone Hole a Double Record Breaker
We now have the largest ozone hole on record… From September 21-30, 2006 the average area of the ozone hole was the largest ever observed, at 10.6 million square miles. [On] Sept. 24, the Antarctic ozone hole was equal to the record single-day largest area of 11.4 million square miles, reached on Sept. 9, 2000.
With a few exceptions, the depth and size of the Antarctic Ozone Hole is increasing each year, while the concentration of ozone, measured in Dobson Unit (DU), is decreasing. The large and persistent ozone hole will allow much more ultraviolet light than usual to reach Earth’s surface in the southern latitudes.
Major Health Problems Linked to Overexposure to UV Radiation
18.1.1. Impair human immune system (including reaction to certain medications, poor response to immunization, sensitivity to sunlight), cause genetic mutations and increase risk of diseases from the human immunodeficiency virus HIV- 1, herpes viruses, malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, dermatitis, and E. coli as well as other diseases.
18.1.2. Increase the incidents of skin cancer (as well as skin disorders like actinic keratoses and premature aging of skin) blood diseases, and cataracts (as well as other eye damage).
18.1.3. Retard crop growth by altering the physiological and developmental processes of plants.
18.1.4. Affect terrestrial and aquatic Biogeochemical Cycles that contribute to eco-feedbacks that reduce or increase the buildup of greenhouse gases as well as ozone.
18.1.5. Damage Marine Ecosystems: Phytoplankton form the basis of aquatic food chains. Exposure to UV reduces their survival rates. Small increases in UVB exposure would reduce their population size and in turn result in large reduction in the size of the animal population that feed on of these creatures. According to one estimate, a 16 percent ozone depletion could result in a disastrous loss of about 7 million tons of fish per year – almost 10 percent of the current annual catch.
The UV hotspots for 2005 [and 2006]: Australia, New Zealand, tip of South America and the Falkland Islands
The human cost of overexposure to UV enhanced by ozone depletion: An estimate for the total number of new skin cancers for 2005
Worldwide (total): 1.5 million cases
New Zealand & Australia: more than 900,000 cases
One in 29 New Zealanders is diagnosed with skin cancer each year, the worst hotspot for skin cancer in the world (together with Australia).
[Source: The Epidemiology of Malignant Melanoma, Desmond & Soong, Surgical Clinics of North America , Vol 83]
MSRB forecast: Large Ozone holes will appear intermittently over Northern Europe and North America by 2015, possibly by as early as 2008.
Human and Financial Costs Natural and man-made catastrophes claimed about 112,000 lives worldwide and resulted in financial losses of about US$225 billion in 2005.
18.2. Global Warming
Global Warming is causing an exponential increase in the destructive forces of tropical cyclones. MSRB forecasts an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans by 2015 compared to recent averages.
Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.
18.2.1. Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons)
Global climate models show a large increase in the power dissipation of hurricanes since the 1970s. A report by Kerry Emanuel, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, finds that the total North Atlantic hurricane power dissipation has more than doubled since 1975. The increases correlate to ocean-surface temperatures.
18.2.2. Extreme Rainfall Events (EREs)
The frequency of extreme rainfall events (for increase in draughts see below) will increase between 30 and 110 percent (depending on the region) by 2015. The increase in torrential rains cause significant damage to ecology, agriculture, human habitat and infrastructure (houses, schools, hospitals, shops, public utilities, sewerage, roads, bridges… ). EREs disrupt all human activities and result in loss of topsoil, human and animal life.
MSRB forecast: Large increases in the following trends:
– Rising Sea-Levels (caused by Global Heating and disruptions in the Hydrologic Cycle)
– Severe Climatic Events (Droughts, wildfires, Hurricanes, Sudden Temperature Changes… )
– Large Loss of carbon sinks
– Heavy Loss of Topsoil and Arable Land
– Increased Climate Refugees
– Pandemic of Virulent Diseases
The disruptions created by these events will result in the loss of both human and animal life costing the world economies an average of 4-500 billion dollars annually between now and 2015.
18.3. Air, Water and Soil Pollution (Municipal Waste, Industrial Pollution, Farm Waste, Pollution from Industrial Accidents, Automobile Pollution, Acid Rain; Toxic Waste Contamination of Soil and Ground water; Radiation Poisoning; Increased Dead Zones in Coastal Waters)
If the current trends were to continue, the ability of Earth’s ecosystems to support life would be reduced significantly.
MSRB forecast: Various regions of the world, especially parts of Australia , Northern Europe and North America will become barren to the extent that they would be unable to support more than a few percent of their current populations by 2015, if the current trends continue.
18.4. Crossing the threshold of sustainability
Human Ecological Footprint crossed the threshold of sustainability in 1980. Our ecological debts to the ecosystems have been piling up since. As of 2005, humans were consuming about 27 percent more natural resources than Earth can produce.
The global Ecological Footprint was about 14 billion global hectares (GH) in 2005, or 2.2 GH per person (a GH has biological productivity equal to global average).
Earth’s biocapacity, based on its biologically productive area, was approximately 11.27 billion GH (25 percent of the Earth’s surface) which provided an average of only 1.73 GH per person in 2005. In 2005, human Ecological Footprint exceeded global biocapacity by 0.46 GH per person (27 percent).
Human population doubled from 1961 to 2005, however, human Ecological Footprint increased from about 5 billion GH to 14 billion GH – a nearly threefold rise.
Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) March 2008
As of End March 2008, the MSRB-CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the full impact of human consumption and activities on the Earth’s life support systems, stood at a terminally high level of 177.43, a rise of about 3.5 percent over the previous year. In other words, the full human impact including the ecological footprint and the damage inflicted on the living environment by his activities in the 12-month period ending March 2008 was 77.43 percent higher than the load which the planet’s ecosystems in their current state can cope with.
18.5. Excessive human consumption is committing many species to extinction
The overshoot takes away living habitats and resources from numerous other species, thus committing them to extinction.
Humans are reducing Earth’s ecological capacity permanently because we are spending nature’s capital faster than it is being regenerated.
The wholesale plunder of Earth’s ecological capacity and natural capital is facilitated by the human pillage of energy resources.
19. The Shrinking Human Habitat
Our planet faces a full-scale catastrophe. Unless the global energy consumption is reduced rapidly—by no later than June 2006—to about 60 exajoules (6E+19 joules – this level is about 12.4 percent of total global energy consumed in 2006 and is equal to the total energy consumed in the year 1910) or to lower levels each year, the runaway positive feedback loops triggering the destruction mechanisms described in Part 1 of this report (ozone holes, global heating, extreme climatic events, toxic pollution, waste accumulation, resources depletion, war, unethical behavior, and disease pandemics) pass the point of no return, overwhelm and destroy the life support systems. Nearly all our cities and population centers become unsustainable by 2015.
Cities that bear the full brunt of the devastation and face the danger of total collapse readily match one or more of the following profiles:
a. Run ethical deficits: corrupt the earth, destroy the ecosystems, wage wars, commit genocide, manufacture WMD…
b. Are located at sea level.
c. Are exposed to excessive UV radiation due to ozone depletion (ozone holes).
d. Have large ecological footprints [The worst offenders would be the first to experience the catastrophic disruptions: United Arab Emirates (10+ GH); Kuwait; The United States; Australia; Canada; Denmark; New Zealand; United Kingdom; Israel; Switzerland; France; Netherlands; Belgium/Luxembourg; Germany]
Note: Humans would need an additional 5 planets, if everyone were to adopt the UAE people’s unethical lifestyle (do. others that closely follow the UAE profile.)
e. Are located in countries with huge ecological deficits (claim more ecological capacity than is available within their borders, e.g., Netherlands has ecological deficit of about -2000%, Belgium -1550%’ Germany -1050%, Britain -1000% and South Korea -950%).
f. Consume large amounts of energy.
g. Have a large human population density.
h. Have large numbers of farm animals, pets, rodents, and insects).
j. Have poor sanitation.
k. Are located within 500 km of toxic chemical plants or a nuclear/toxic dumps.
m. Their water or food supply comes from an area situated within a 1000km radius of a nuclear or toxic dump.
n. More than 30 percent of their food supplies come from distances over 40km long.
o. Suffer social inequity.
p. Have water shortages.
See also: The First Wave of the World’s Collapsing Cities
It seems highly unlikely that post industrial civilization would voluntarily sacrifice its perceived privileges that are based on spurious ethics in favor of sustaining life on Earth.
We are therefore creating a radical program aimed at salvaging life amid the looming mass extinction.
20. The Eviction Notice!
A brief memo from Earth!
From:…….Mother Nature
Date:…….. Now
To:…………The Freudian HIVE Predators
Subject:…. Your Time Is Up!
[Last revised December 2007]
PRO 