On The Way To Armageddon
Posted by feww on December 12, 2007
On The Way To Armageddon: Could We Make A Detour?
by S.H. Saloor [May 31, 2004]
James Lovelock: ‘Only nuclear power can now halt global warming’
Lovelock’s assertion that “Only nuclear power can now halt global warming” [Independent UK, May 24, 2004] is what Ed Regis (Great Mambo Chicken and the Transhuman Condition) calls turn of century’s “great wave of fin-de-siècle hubristic mania.” The Professor can be forgiven for his tardiness: He is 84.
Lovelock proposes that a massive expansion of nuclear power is the only thing that “can now check a runaway warming which would raise sea levels disastrously around the world, cause climatic turbulence …”
He says he is concerned by “two climatic events in particular: the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which will raise global sea levels significantly, and the episode of extreme heat in western central Europe last August, accepted by many scientists as unprecedented and a direct result of global warming.” He is right to be concerned.
As well, “climate change is speeding, but many people are still in ignorance of this.” Unfortunately, he is right on target on this one, too.
Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the Earth, says: “Climate change and radioactive waste both pose deadly long-term threats, and we have a moral duty to minimize the effects of both, not to choose between them.”
“[A]s of the end of 2000 the world counted 438 reactors with a total of 350 GW, less than 8 percent of the projected nuclear capacity. They produced about 17 percent of the world’s electricity or about 7.5 percent of its commercial primary energy, far behind oil (40%), coal and natural gas (25% each). Nuclear power accounts for only 2 to 3 percent of the world’s commercial final energy consumption.” http://www.greens-efa.org
Lovelock also fails to consider the issue of time frame: It would probably take 15 to 20 years to even double the projected nuclear capacity from 8 to 16 percent (increasing to 5 percent the nuclear share of world’s commercial final energy consumption) without taking too many shortcuts with devastating consequences (the Chernobyl disaster, the Three Mile Island incident, and many recent near misses in Japan and elsewhere spring to mind). By then, however, the rising sea levels will have inundated most of the existing reactors.
How would Lovelock propose to solve the civilization’s mobility dilemma that we have created in the last 100 years? (About 600 million cars are registered worldwide, as well as millions of trucks and buses, thousands of trains, planes, boats … and millions more are being manufactured each year). What is Lovelock proposing, cars running on nuclear powered batteries? [How about nuclear-powered jets flying over Washington DC?]
Soon the additional demand for oil fueled by the increase in the number of vehicles on the roads and planes in the air would render the nuclear conversion ineffective. The only thing to show for a fleeting moment of madness would be a bigger pile of radioactive waste, which no one knows what to do with.
Global Warming is not the disease; it’s a symptom, albeit the most serious symptom of a cancer caused by industrial civilization. Prescribing more nuclear power (even if it were physically possible) as a cure to the civilization’s cancer is tantamount to treating a smoker’s lung-cancer by switching her over to a different brand of cigarettes.
According to Lester Brown (Earth Policy Institute) the world experienced the fourth consecutive harvest shortfalls in 2003. Last year’s shortfall of 105 million tons (5.4 percent of the total world consumption) was “easily the largest on record.” The world’s carryover stocks of grain are at their “lowest level in 30 years,” amounting to “dangerously low level of 59 days of consumption.” The minimum level needed for food security is considered to be 70 days of consumption. Meanwhile, 74 million people will be added to the world population in 2004. (www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update40_data.htm).
Based on the United Nations projections, by 2015 nearly 1.4 billion people in up to 48 countries will face severe water shortages (we believe this figure is highly optimistic), while the water quality continues to deteriorate globally from pollution and rising temperatures.
World oil production is about 80 million BPD [barrels per day] and the projected demand for 2015 [a conservative estimate] is an unsustainable 135 million BPD. The New Oil-Rule Economy will replace the “old” economy in the very near future. A single company/organization will have a monopoly on about 80 percent of “economically recoverable” global oil reserves. It will dictate “production,” pricing, and delivery (and will even decide on the end user – who may or may not buy the oil). How much is too much for a barrel of oil, $40, $240, or $4,000 a barrel? Soon, the current monetary system will be of no value.
The world spent about 1,500 billion dollars on military [the war racket] in the last 12 months. The US share of the spending was about 1,000 billion dollars, or 52 cents in every dollar of Federal Funds (current military spending 29 percent; Iraq and Afghanistan 4 percent; past military 19 percent, including national debt created by military spending) while 35 million Americans live at or below the federal poverty level.
All around us we have created a garbage quicksand. We are sinking rapidly in a quicksand of 57 trillion pounds of materials that is turned into waste annually. Of course, there is a price to pay: The Sixth Great Extinction is looming.
To avert extinction we need an ecological revolution. We must unlearn, rethink, undo, and re-do all human activities re-mapping a sustainable path within the framework of eco-centrism.
Unless the dynamics of our civilization pertaining to our morality, militarism, mobility, consumption, and our perceived ideas about possession and waste are reversed rapidly, this writer believes, the “final” war (which is being fought over the control of resources) would, in the very near future, enter its next sinister stage – a global thermonuclear holocaust.
How else could you prevent anyone in China, to quote but one example, from eating a square meal a day, or owning a car, or the gasoline to drive her car, while the United States with less 5 percent of the world population is taking more than 25 percent of the energy and 30 plus percent of all the resources?
We must begin a new chapter in human evolution, one that rejects wars for control over the oil, food, water supplies, and other resources.
But how do we do it? Is there a “single” solution that would avert an all-out nuclear war, prevent further militarism, check global warming, stop consumerist madness, reduce CO2 emissions by more than 80 percent, reduce acid rains, minimize toxins in the land, air, and sea … ?
The Zero Oil Solution
Yes there is. The zero-oil, NO fossil fuel principle—a moratorium on oil extraction and fossil fuel consumption.
Freeze the oil. Seal the oil wells. Cement them, or otherwise make it impossible to pump out any oil for 50 years. Keep all the fossil fuels in the ground, where they belong!
Stopping the flow of oil globally and keeping the fossil fuels in the ground are drastic measures, of course, and cannot be easily implemented. Freezing the consumption of fossil fuels has far-reaching socio-economical implications; it will create great upheavals. The consequences of the zero-oil, NO fossil fuel principle, however, would be far less devastating than the remaining alternatives: The inevitable global thermonuclear war, and global warming.
A moratorium on oil and fossil fuel production can only be reached through global consensus among governments; it would require an unprecedented level of cooperation among the “representatives” of nations.
The existing resources need to be redistributed fairly; populations must be readied to assume new challenges; lifestyles will be changed dramatically; communities would have to learn how to produce their food (and renewable power) locally, be sustainable and learn to do more with less.
Unfortunately, this author does not believe such levels of cooperation could possibly develop between the world governments anytime soon.
We must, therefore, rely on “we the people.” We need non-violent volunteer organizations to develop and promulgate a new, unified value system based on an eco-centric economy at war speed, employing creative ways and means of stopping the flow of oil and consumption of fossil fuels globally to avert The Sixth Great Extinction.
If we choose life, that’s a price well worth paying for.
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Greg said
I often think of the bumper sticker that reads, “IF YOU’RE NOT OUTRAGED, YOU’RE NOT PAYING ATTENTION.” Based on a small census of the lunch-time conversation at my work, most people are not paying attention (even though I find, for example, the price of iPods outrageous, but not even that fazes them).
Me and my wife, to be sure, ARE outraged, but are forced by urgency to minimize our study of “the news” — which is full of reasons to give up on our politicians — and maximize our study of how to reinvent our lives off the grid and away from the (present/future) mire. The most difficult part is maintaining our motivation while caught between ignorance on the one side and negativity on the other.
I recommend both thinking and acting local — extremely locally — having cast a wish for better days globally.
feww said
The following reply was submitted by Harry Saloor, author of the article:
Greg — To Save Humanity from TOTAL Extinction, Flap Your Wings!
People are not outraged because they have been/are being emotionally desensitized systematically. Neither I nor any of my colleagues owns or uses an iPod [nor a Facebook account for that matter;] thus we are shielded against its [direct] cost and consequences.
Reinventing your and your wife’s lives off the grid might seem like an obvious ‘win’ strategy; however, for as long as we share the same atmosphere, air soil and water, we share a common future. The ‘escape to wilderness,’ option is, therefore, an ineffective long-term strategy. We live in a closed system, for all intents and purposes. A strong relationship exists between the forces acting upon all of us: Every action has an equal and opposite reaction; any attempt to break free from a common destiny would face its own nemesis.
What to do: Flap your wings to bring about the ‘radical’ changes necessary to save humanity from total extinction
There is a concept out there which is called ‘sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory,’ which means tiny variations in the initial condition of a nonlinear dynamic system could result in large variations in the outcome/behavior of that system. Put simply, a butterfly flapping its wings in China might create changes in the atmosphere that could ultimately cause [or prevent] a category five hurricane off the coast of Louisiana. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the system’s outcome might have been entirely different.
Humans, too, could create initial conditions that would cause a massive corrective change in the system or destroy it altogether, for example, by revolutionizing the economy; or, equally, by feeding the large positive feedback loops that would wipe all of us off the face of the earth.
Poverty in Africa, droughts in Australia, poisoning of land and water in New Zealand, bloodbath in Iraq, human rights abuses in Israel and Canada, government corruption in Saudi Arabia… excessive energy consumption, overproduction and pollution in the US and China and all other human-induced catastrophes are triggering the big ‘hurricane’ that would destroy everything in its path.
Our lives are too interdependent; we are all caught in the same crossfire. Yes, we have to act locally, but we must think globally AND intergenerationally. NO solution would work for any one of us in the long run, unless it works for each and every one of us, and our children, too.
And so it shall be!
winston smith said
If the subject isn’t about overpopulation… [Edited by moderator. See reply above! FEWW]
feww said
Hello, Winston!
Here’s a reply to your comment, which was submitted by MIRVA, CASF Committee Member, on Jan 13, 2008, and was posted at Flap Your Wings to Save the World.
The committee members have identified Overshoot of Carrying Capacity (increased ecological footprint and “overpopulation” in “developed” countries) as a major cause of collapse. We also call for the world population to be stabilized at its current levels.
The world is in a drastic overshoot of carrying capacity in energy, material, food, clean water, and many other resources. The major cause of this overshoot is the unsustainable lifestyles of the populations in developed countries; it can hardly be blamed on the entire world population. Half the world population live on less than two dollars per day! See below for a comparison:
High income countries (GDP (PPP) per capita)
Luxembourg: $87,400
Norway: $47,098
United States: $44,765
Finland: $37,957
Canada: 36,984
Less Developed Countries
Afghanistan: $700
Malawi: $600
D.R. of Congo: $700
Brundi: $600
Liberia: $19 (2007 estimate)
Now compare the energy consumption for the same countries:
High income countries (per capita energy delivered in watts)
Luxembourg: 14,416W
Norway: 14,670W
United States: 11,383W
Finland: 8,075W
Canada: 14,582W
Less Developed Countries:
Afghanistan: 21W
Malawi: 64W
D.R. of Congo: 56W
Brundi: 40W
Liberia: 11W
MIRVA, Committee Member, CASF
See also: Flap Your Wings to Save the World.
feww said
Winston — To the one half of the world who live on less than 2-dollars a day (they receive 300 times less per capita energy than the average in the US) the world must look extremely overpopulated with an effective population of about 57 billion! [The EU27 with per capita GDP of $29,900 would account for 21 billion and the United States—per capita GDP of $43,223—for 18 billion of the total effective population.]
Crappy said
[Unintelligent comment. Edited. Moderator]
feww said
Despite your name, if you have an intelligent comment to make, I’d present it to the author.